There is a lot of hoopla, in the Democratic Party, as their 24 candidates running for President make news headlines every day. One would think that to read these stories, the rank and file Democrat, is a far leftist Socialist like Bernie Sanders or New York City’s AOC. There is a new poll of Democrats that show why Donald Trump could be re-elected for a second term.
This poll, from Fox News, at first blush says that Trump will lose to a number of the top tiered Democrats running against him in 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden would beat Trump by 10 percentage points, 49 percent to 39 percent percent. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders would win 49 Percent to Trump's 40 percent of the vote.Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren also would beat Trump with a narrow 43 percent to 41 percent vote.Kamila Harris and Mayor Peter Buttigieg both manage to get a 1-point margin of 42 percent to 41 percent.
This would imply that things are not looking good for the President in winning a second term. However, there’s more to the story.
One of the other questions, in this poll, asked Democrats specifically, would they vote for a candidate with a “bold new agenda” or one “who will provide steady, reliable leadership”.
The answers these Democrats provided offer a pretty solid view that explains why Trump has a pretty good chance of winning re-election in 2020. 75% of the Democratic respondents said they want the person who will provide steady, reliable leadership. The remaining 25 percent said they want someone with a bold new agenda. This is consistent with other polls that show Democrat voters are way more moderate than the 2020 Democratic candidates running for President.
Gallup found in 2018 that 54 percent of Democratic voters wanted their party to be “more moderate” vs 41 percent that wanted their party to be “more liberal”.
Other than Joe Biden, all of the Democratic 2020 candidates are pushing for a far more liberal, socialistic agenda that would appear to be in opposition to what their voters say they want. This might well explain why Vice President Joe Biden has, up to now, been the far leading favorite of the Democrats for 2020.
Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for All would cost $37 Trillion dollars over a 10-year period, or $3.7 trillion each year. His plan for Free-College would cost the federal government $47 billion, every year.
Elizabeth Warren has made promises, if elected to spend $3.3 Trillion dollars over a period of 10 years in new giveaways that she says would be paid for with a “Wealth Tax” that would only raise, at best, $2.75 trillion. She doesn’t say where the other 0.55 Trillion would come from. My guess is, you and I the middle class, would be on the hook for that part of her plan.
The other Democratic 2020 candidates are all offering a variation on these expensive plans, thus making all of them, other than Biden, fit the “Bold New Agenda” group.
The New York Times reports that an outspoken group of Democratic leaning voters on social media about 2 to 1 favor a more moderate, traditional approach vs a more extreme liberal or Socialistic approach.
The question that remains, what about Biden? The former vice president, in all of the polls, has a double-digit lead over Trump. The Wall Street Journal says Biden may be a real threat to Trump winning in 2020, because many voters are worn out from the non-stop Trumpian atmosphere of disruption and volatility.
For such voters, the Trump nickname of “Sleepy Joe Biden” may not be an insult, but what they’re actually looking for. This of course assumes that the former Vice President actually gets the Democratic nomination. Biden has a 40+ year record for his fellow Democrats to pick apart, and pick apart his record, they will do.
On one hand, President Trump probably would be better off if the Democrats chose someone other than Joe Biden as their candidate. If the Democrats nominate any of the other 23 candidates they have currently running, given their far-left leaning, socialistic agenda, and the results of that Fox News Poll of Democrats, it would appear that Mr. Trump would be winning a second term.
If Biden is the Democratic candidate, then Trump could still win, but a lot would depend on if the economy and the job outlook, etc., are still doing great. Also, what could sink Biden’s chance of winning would be how far to the left the former Vice President swings in his effort to appease folks like AOC and her leftist Socialistic group within the Democratic party. Trump could win 2020, Biden could win 2020.
It could end up being a very close race, in the end.
Mike Cannatelli’s column appears every other week in the print edition of the Avon Grove Sun and the Kennett News.